Risk Prediction, CT Angiography, and CV Events in Chest Pain

Quick Takes

  • Coronary CT angiography in stable chest pain was associated with a lower rate of adverse events compared to usual care in patients at low clinical risk of obstructive CAD.
  • No differences in outcomes were observed between groups in patients identified as very-low or moderate/high clinical risk.

Study Questions:

What is the prognostic effect of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) versus usual care in patients with stable chest pain?

Methods:

This study pooled individual data from patients in the randomized PROMISE and SCOT-HEART trials of patients with stable chest pain, and compared the outcomes of patients randomized to CCTA versus usual care in patients stratified by risk factor weighted clinical likelihood (RF-CL) model estimates for obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) (very-low ≤5%, low >5 to 15%, and moderate/high >15%). The primary endpoint was death or myocardial infarction at 3 years.

Results:

There were 13,748 individuals included in this pooled study, and the primary endpoint was observed in 2.3% (n = 313) of patients. Very-low, low, and moderate/high RF-CL risk was estimated in 33%, 44%, and 23% of patients, respectively. Patients with low RF-CL risk in the CCTA cohort had lower adverse events than the usual care group (risk difference, 0.7%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.97). There were no differences in events between the CCTA and usual care cohorts in very-low-risk patients (risk difference, 0.3%; HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.74-1.26) or moderate/high risk patients (risk difference, 0.5%; HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.63-1.23). The number needed to test with CCTA to reduce one event over 3 years was 143.

Conclusions:

Patients with low RF-CL had a reduced risk of adverse events when undergoing CCTA compared to usual care, although the number needed to test to reduce one event was relatively high. CCTA (vs. usual care) was not associated with reduced adverse events in patients with very-low or moderate/high RF-CL.

Perspective:

This analysis pooled data from two randomized studies with discordant findings. The SCOT-HEART trial randomized 4,146 stable chest pain patients to CCTA versus standard of care; 85% of all patients underwent stress electrocardiography testing prior to randomization, and stress imaging was rarely performed in the standard of care cohort (11%). There were no differences in mortality or myocardial infarction at 1.7 years, although the CCTA cohort had lower events at 5 years. The PROMISE trial randomized 10,003 stable chest pain patients to CCTA versus functional-testing, with patients in the functional-testing arm receiving stress imaging in 90% of cases; there were no differences in composite adverse events between the two groups at a median follow-up of 2 years.

The present study pools data from two trials comparing CCTA to usual care, with the usual care cohort having stress imaging in 11% of patients in one study and 90% in the other. This difference may in part explain the discordant findings between these studies and suggests that CCTA may improve outcomes compared to usual care with minimal stress imaging but may result in similar outcomes compared to usual care that usually includes stress imaging.

The key finding of this pooled analysis is that patients with low RF-CL risk randomized to CCTA had improved outcomes compared to usual care—but not very-low or moderate/high RF-CL risk. This highlights the importance of selecting patients for CCTA with an intermediate pretest probability of obstructive CAD. However, usual care is not defined consistently between these two pooled studies, which presents challenges interpreting these findings. Even in patients at low RF-CL risk, it is not clear whether CCTA would be associated with improved outcomes compared to usual care that frequently includes stress imaging.

Clinical Topics: Cardiovascular Care Team, Invasive Cardiovascular Angiography and Intervention, Noninvasive Imaging, Atherosclerotic Disease (CAD/PAD), Interventions and Coronary Artery Disease, Interventions and Imaging, Computed Tomography, Nuclear Imaging

Keywords: Chest Pain, Computed Tomography Angiography, Coronary Artery Disease


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