Routine ECG Screening and CVD Events in Adults

Quick Takes

  • Baseline ECG abnormalities on routine ECGs are associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events.
  • The number of baseline minor ECG abnormalities on routine ECGs is associated with a higher chance of development of new major ECG abnormalities.
  • Routine ECG monitoring may help identify patients at risk of CVD.

Study Questions:

Is there a role for routine electrocardiogram (ECG) screening to assess cardiovascular risk?

Methods:

The Japanese Health Insurance Association database was queried in subjects aged 35-65 years. Since an ECG is required for employment for those aged ≥35 years (with some exceptions for 36- to 39-year-olds), this database provides a huge amount of information on this working age population. ECGs were categorized as being normal, having one minor abnormality, or having two or more minor abnormalities. A total of approximately 3.7 million individuals were enrolled in this program. During a mean follow-up of 5.5 years, subjects were evaluated for a composite endpoint of death and cardiovascular disease (CVD) admissions, with the subjects with normal ECGs being the comparator group.

Results:

A total of 16.8% of subjects had one minor ECG abnormality. Two minor abnormalities were found in 3.9% of the group and 1.9% had a major abnormality. At the 5.5-year follow-up, the hazard ratio (compared to those with normal ECGs) was 1.19 for those with one minor abnormality, 1.36 for two or more abnormalities, and 1.96 for those with a major abnormality. Additionally, the presence of abnormalities was associated with future development of ECG abnormalities, with a hazard ratio of 2.52 for one minor abnormality, and 3.61 for two or more minor abnormalities.

Conclusions:

Even minor ECG abnormalities are associated with increased overall cardiovascular risk, with a higher number of abnormalities being associated with higher risk. Additionally, the presence of minor abnormalities increases the chance of development of further ECG abnormalities.

Perspective:

The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force has recommended against routine ECGs in people at low risk. Although the test is considered harmless, the rationale is that it can trigger a subsequent set of largely unneeded tests, some dangerous, with no proven clear benefit in this population. Nonetheless, routine ECGs are done frequently in many offices and during many periodic physicals. In this study, a working age population in Japan was evaluated, as their ECGs were largely done in a routine fashion as part of an annual employment physical. Indeed, the presence of even minor ECG abnormalities was associated with increased overall cardiovascular risk, and the presence of abnormalities suggested that there would be more abnormalities in the future.

But does the knowledge of these abnormalities drive actions that will improve outcome? Or, perhaps, will the knowledge of these abnormalities in this asymptomatic group just result in more tests that will do nothing more than worry the patient, spend money, and even confer harm? Well, that will be the next question to answer. This trial, however, does provide important information that suggests there may be value in routine ECGs in low-risk subjects, as it identifies abnormalities that can be addressed. Perhaps addressing the minor abnormalities may be simply a motivation for intensified blood pressure and lipid management. And perhaps detecting the patients with major abnormalities may be enough to drive an improved overall outcome.

At this time, however, the question is really whether routine ECGs in low-risk patients has value. This study leaves us with a firm “maybe” followed by a call to investigate how these findings were managed, and whether that management led to improved outcomes. Strategies would need to be developed on how to handle major and minor abnormalities.

Clinical Topics: Arrhythmias and Clinical EP, Prevention

Keywords: Diagnostic Screening Programs, Electrocardiography


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